Why win rate is the stat that tells you the least

Every capper leads with win rate because it is the easiest number to make look good. Bet enough heavy favourites and you can hit 65% and still finish the year down.

The price is what decides whether a win is worth anything. Laying -300 means four wins pay for one loss. Taking +180 means one win pays for nearly two losses. Those are different jobs and the same win rate describes both.

I hit well under half my plays. I am up because I take prices other people will not, and because every bet is graded whether it wins or not.

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