Exclusive PlaysGet the plays

Bret McDermott

I lose most of my bets
and I'm up 28 units.

Win rate is the stat everyone advertises and it is the one that tells you the least. I hit 36% of my plays. I take prices nobody else wants, and over 224 graded bets that has returned +12.6%.

The record, in full

Since May 2026. Every play below was posted before the game started and graded off the final score. Losses included, because leaving them out is the whole trick everyone else is running.

224
Graded plays
81-141-2
Record
36.5%
Win rate
+28.12
Units won

A 36% win rate looks bad until you see the prices. Betting favourites at heavy juice can win 60% and lose money all year. I would rather be wrong more often and get paid properly when I am right.

You do not have to take my word for any of it

Every play I make is posted to Nexfuse before the game starts, timestamped, and graded automatically off the box score. I cannot delete a loss. I cannot edit a price after the fact. The number you see is the number I actually ran.

Screenshots can be faked. That is why I do not use them.

Check my record on Nexfuse

What you actually get

  1. 1

    Every play, before the game

    Posted with the price I got and the reasoning behind it. No vague leans, no "I liked it" after the fact.

  2. 2

    The thinking, not just the pick

    Why the number is wrong, what I expect the market to do, and what would change my mind. You should be able to disagree with me.

  3. 3

    The losses, same day, same place

    Graded and posted whether they hit or not. If a week goes badly you will hear about it from me before you hear about it from anyone else.

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